The OPC Experiment

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If you have previously visited this page you will see it has been rewritten. I made some incorrect assumptions at the beginning of the experiment, which I will detail below, and I wanted to clean up the confusing mess the original version of this page had become.

I decided to see what kind of returns were possible on a ridiculously high interest staking coin, and chose OPC (OP Coin) to run the experiment. The published rate of OPC is currently 1200% interest. My original thought was this interest rate was the yearly compounded rate, which would mean if I started the year with 1000 OPC, at the end of the year I would have 12,000 OPC (1000 * 1200%) more. Makes sense, right?

To show you the interest for a yearly compounded return of 1200% looks like, I will use the calculator below. Click through to it and try this on your own.

http://www.ginifab.com/feeds/compound_interest_calculator/

We want to find out if we start with 1000 OPC, and stake for a 1 year period, what interest rate would we plug in to earn 12,000 additional OPC by the end of the year? Try the values below for yourself. Notice the total we want to have at the end of the year is 13,000 because we started with 1000 OPC, and are planning to earn 12,000 more.

OPC1

It turns out the rate needed would be very close to 257%. Before I started this experiment, this is how I believed the 1200% was calculated, and I expected to see staking returns in line with 257% interest, or .7% per day (257 / 365).

I was very wrong. As you will see in the results below, the true interest is actually 1200%, and the compounding on top of that leads to some truly mind-blowing staking returns. Head back to the calculator and change the 257% to 1200% and see what happens.

OPC2

We are not going to see that return because OPC will not keep pumping out at this ridiculous rate forever. It is going to stay at 1200% until block 100,000 on approximately March 18th. Then it will go up for about three weeks to 1500%, before coming back down to 1000% until sometime in mid-May 2018. From there the interest rate will continue to gradually decline.

What should you expect to earn in staking rewards per day on average at 1200%? It is actually easy to calculate…

1200% / 365 days = 3.288% per day

I am not saying you should jump in to get in on these insane rates this late in the game. I am recommending we watch the staking returns as I report them, and learn from OPC so next time a coin like this comes along we know how to play it. This is as much about price as it is about staking. You have to figure at some point people are going to start dumping their huge bags of staked OPC on the market as the interest rates fall. We are looking for the perfect exit point taking into consideration the number of coins we are earning and selling price.

I am using the export function in the OPC wallet. I can then easily see what my total balance was on day 1, and the interest earned each 7 days. I am not going to post daily results, because the staking rewards are very volatile. The only way to realistically come up with a number is to average the results weekly. I can easily enter my beginning balance in the calculator from the link above to see where I would/should be.

 

OPC Staking Explained

After running the experiment for 7 weeks, and compiling the results below, I learned how to verify OPC is staking as advertised. I will go through that here. I will base my calculations on hourly results, because they give a much more accurate representation of the staking return. Thanks to @VaporLips for explaining this to me.

First, you have to calculate the hourly percentage OPC should return at 1200%. This is:

1200 / 365 / 24 = .1369 percent per hour

If you have your OPC broken into small chucks within specific addresses, it is easy to follow the staking return for each successful staking transaction. You can get this by Exporting the transactions in csv format from your wallet, and then filtering out one of your addresses. Here are my results for the address I named Address 35 in my wallet.

OPC Staking

First, I simply have to calculate the number of hours between successful staking transactions. For example, the amount of time between row 263 and 249 was 38 hours. I populated the hours in Column F. Then I multiplied the number of hours by the percentage I should have received per hour, which we already calculated to be .1369 percent. That gave me the total I would have expected to receive based on the number of hours it took the stake reward to show up, and I put this in column G.

I took this total percentage and multiplied it by the actual total in the address after the last stake, which is in column I. For example, I started with 13,144 and received 686 in my first stake reward, giving me a total of 13831, which is what OPC uses when calculating the next staking reward.

Now, I simply multiply 13,831 by the percent I would have expected to earn in 43 hours, which is 5.89%, and I come up with 814.21 OPC, which is almost exactly what I earned in my next stake (817 was the actual total).

So why do all of the results in the experiment below seem to be low? I think the most obvious answer is the calculator I was using is compounding daily (every 24 hours), but the OPC calculation only updates the total number it is staking for after the latest reward is sent, and this can take many days. Let me explain a bit more.

If you average the number of hours between each staking reward above, you come up with 88 hours (3 days 16 hours). For all this time, OPC is staking .1369 percent based on the total number at the beginning. The calculator, on the other hand, calculates its new total based on .1369 percentage after 24 hours. In a simple illustration, if we start with 10,000 coins…

  • Start of Day 2
    • OPC Total – 10,000 coins
    • Calculator Total – 10,000 coins * .001369 * 24 = 10,328.56
  • Start of Day 3
    • OPC Total – 10,000 coins
    • Calculator Total – 10,328.56 * .001369 * 24 = 10,667.91
  • Start of Day 4 (Stake Hits in OPC wallet after 72 hours)
    • OPC Total – 10,000 * .001369 * 72 = 10,985
    • Calculator Total – 10,667.91 * .001369 * 24 = 11,018.41

You can see the total from the calculator is higher than the total OPC returns. When dealing with much larger sums of OPC in the hundreds of thousands over many weeks, this small amount increases exponentially.

 

Experiment Results

Below are the actual results and my comments on the experiment for the 7 weeks I ran it. All of those results, while accurate, did not paint a true picture of the staking calculations because I was calculating based on a daily return, while OPC staking is calculated based on the time between stakes, which can often be longer than a day.

Staking Note: I later learned it makes sense to send your entire balance into the staking wallet in one large chunk, rather than breaking it up into pieces. The first four weeks of this experiment I had the OPC broken up into 10,000 coin chunks in unique wallet addresses, and this may be the reason I did not receive the returns I was expecting (see below). I change this at the beginning of week five.

I started on day 1 (January 18th, 2018) with 334,556 OPC. Approximate BTC Price, 300 sats… which conveniently is exactly 1 BTC.

Week 1 Results (January 18th to January 24th) – OPC @ 1200%

  • Started with – 334,556
  • Earned Staking through 7 complete days – 66,854
  • Average Daily Earned – 9,550
  • Average Number of Stakes / Day – 9.0
  • Average Stake Reward – 1061 OPC
  • Total OPC After 7 Days – 401,410
  • Percent Earned this week – 19.98% (66,854 / 334,556)
  • Approx. BTC Price at end of period, 700 sats.
  • Approx. BTC Weekly Staking value – .468 BTC (66,854 * .000007)
  • Approx. BTC Total value – 2.81 BTC (401,410 * .000007)

Notes: I am about 17,000 coins low from where I would expect to be based on the numbers I plugged into the calculator. This may be because this staking period started in the 1000% interest period, or because I am a couple staking returns behind. More to come over the coming weeks as I gather more data.

 

Week 2 Results (January 25th to January 31st) – OPC @ 1200%

  • Started with – 401,410
  • Earned Staking through 7 complete days – 83,338
  • Average Daily Earned – 11,905
  • Average Number of Stakes / Day – 7.86
  • Average Stake Reward – 1514 OPC
  • Total OPC After 14 Days – 484,748
  • Total OPC Staked after 14 days – 150,192
  • Percent Earned this week – 20.76% (83,338 / 401,410)
  • Percent Earned Since Start – 44.89% (150,192 / 334,556)
  • Approximate BTC Price at end of period, 720 sats.
  • Approx. BTC Weekly Staking value – .6 BTC (83,338 * .0000072)
  • Approx. BTC Total value – 3.49 BTC (484,748 * .0000072)

Notes: Though I am up about .78% over last week, but I am still 18,668 low on my return if I am looking for a straight up 1200%. I should have earned 22.65% this week, or 102,006 OPC in order to stay on pace with that theory, so either something in my thinking / calculating is off, or the percentage staking is off.

It is important (for me) to remember there are many factors that go into the staking return, but in my opinion there should not be. If a project says 1200%, or 100%, or whatever, I should be able to pop that number into a calculator and have it work out to the correct value I am receiving. Part of the problem is the staking parameters have not been defined in detail, but then nobody provides that detail, so I am not saying OPC has a problem… just that I do not have all the information I need to give an accurate reason why it is not exactly what I would expect.

 

Week 3 Results (February 1st to February 7th) – OPC @ 1200%

  • Started with – 485,108
  • Earned Staking through 7 complete days – 118,309
  • Average Daily Earned – 16,901
  • Average Number of Stakes / Day – 8.43
  • Average Stake Reward – 2004 OPC
  • Total OPC After 21 Days – 603,417
  • Total OPC Staked after 21 Days – 268,501
  • Percent Earned this week – 24.39% (118,309 / 485,108)
  • Percent Earned Since Start – 80.26% (268,501 / 334,556)
  • Approximate BTC Price at end of period, 520 sats.
  • Approx. BTC Weekly Staking value – .615 BTC (118,309 * .0000052)
  • Approx. BTC Total value – 3.13 BTC (603,417 * .0000052)

Notes: Sorry for anyone actually doing the math to check my numbers. My total number starting this week is a few hundred OPC off due to rounding I used last week. I am correcting the number rather than redoing the previous 2 weeks.

This is the first week the number staked is close enough to 1200% for me to say it is working with my current configuration. I was only low by 4967 OPC, which is about 4% of my total staked, or 1156% total return. I had a few orphaned rewards this week for more than the total I am missing, so maybe those are factored into the percentage published.

One of the numbers that jumps out at me is the total reward per stake over the 3 weeks. Week 1 averaged 1000 OPC, week 2 1500 OPC, and week 3 2000 OPC. This shows the power of compounding. Each week your staking is based on higher totals, so you can expect greater rewards. Also notice, the number of staking rewards averaged per day has stayed pretty steady each week at around 8… I have just been receiving more OPC per reward.

I had a conversation with an OPC dev this week. He checked to be sure the staking was set at 1200% and explained how using Coin Control may help increase the percentage returned. I had various members in the OPC Discord channel recommend keeping your OPC in one large block using Coin Control. I am not going to change up the experiment this week, but I am planning to combine the coins at some point. I pasted a link to a video on how to do this below.

OPC Coin Control Youtube Video

The OPC is really coming in fast now! Now we just need the price to go back to where it has been over the last few weeks.

 

Week 4 Results (February 8th to February 14th) – OPC @ 1200%

  • Started with – 603,417
  • Earned Staking through 7 complete days – 135,358
  • Average Daily Earned – 19,336
  • Average Number of Stakes / Day – 8.14
  • Average Stake Reward – 2374.7 OPC
  • Total OPC After 28 Days – 738,783
  • Total OPC Staked after 28 Days – 403,859
  • Percent Earned this week – 22.43% (135,358 / 603,417)
  • Percent Earned Since Start – 120% (403,859 / 334,556)
  • Approximate BTC Price at end of period, 320 sats.
  • Approx. BTC Weekly Staking value – .433 BTC (135,358 * .0000032)
  • Approx. BTC Total value – 2.36 BTC (738,783 * .0000032)

Notes: The price is really hurting the value of OPC now. I find it hard to believe the sell off started happening 5 weeks before the increase to 1500%. There are some other high percentage staking coins out there with a longer staking life than OPC, such as DV7 & DVRS. Maybe people are moving out of OPC and into these coins. It makes sense.

I was 17,984 OPC below where I would have been if I was earning 1200% this week. I was closer to 1070%. As stated previously, this may be due to the way I have my coins combined into many chunks, so I decided to combine them all last night. This should give me a chance to provide some information on if it truly made a difference in the upcoming weeks. This change should drastically change how my rewards are coming in.

So here is the good news about this ridiculous staking percentage. By the time 1500% gets here, I will be staking more OPC each week than I originally started with. When it gets to that point, in order for me to lose money on my original investment the price would have to fall in half every week. It is possible, there will be a lot of people dumping their coins on the market.

The BTC price of OPC over the next week should be very telling.

 

Week 5 Results (February 15th to February 21st) – OPC @ 1200%

  • Started with – 738,783
  • Earned Staking through 7 complete days – 156,475
  • Average Daily Earned – 22,353
  • Average Number of Stakes / Day – 2.42
  • Average Stake Reward – 9236.77 OPC
  • Total OPC After 35 Days – 895,258
  • Total OPC Staked after 35 Days – 560,334
  • Percent Earned this week – 21.18% (156,475 / 738,783)
  • Percent Earned Since Start – 167% (560,334 / 334,556)
  • Approximate BTC Price at end of period, 130 sats.
  • Approx. BTC Weekly Staking value – .203 BTC (156,475 * .0000013)
  • Approx. BTC Total value – 1.16 BTC (895,258 * .0000013)

Notes: While the staking is still rolling in, the price of OPC is weighing heavily on the value. This was part of the experiment as well. You have to take both price and quantity into account when deciding if it makes sense to buy. For me, the main purpose of this experiment was to find out if it made sense to invest in these staking projects, and if so when to get out of them.

So, does this mean don’t buy high staking coins? There is no way to make that determination at this point, so the experiment must go on. The price of all alts is down right now as people seem to be selling back into Bitcoin in anticipation of its recovery. If the market turns around, I hope that means OPC turns around as well and I would be back on track for big gains.

This was the first week I had used coin control to put the OPC into a single large chunk. The payouts were larger, but the number of stakes received were far fewer. The purpose of this move was to see if we got closer to 1200% with this strategy. The answer this week is no. At 1200%, I should have had 926,526, so I was 31,268 OPC short, which put the return at 1020%.

I need more data to come to any conclusion, of course. I re-combined the coins last night and will see what happens this week.

 

Week 6 Results (February 22nd to February 28th) – OPC @ 1200%

  • Started with – 895,258
  • Earned Staking through 7 complete days – 187,224
  • Average Daily Earned – 26,746
  • Average Number of Stakes / Day – 1.8
  • Average Stake Reward – 14,402 OPC
  • Total OPC After 42 Days – 1,082,482
  • Total OPC Staked after 42 Days – 747,926 (1,082,482 – 334,556)
  • Percent Earned this week – 20.91% (187,224 / 895,258)
  • Percent Earned Since Start – 223% (747,926 / 334,556)
  • Approximate BTC Price at end of period, 185 sats.
  • Approx. BTC Weekly Staking value – .346 BTC (187,224 * .00000185)
  • Approx. BTC Total value – 2.00 BTC (1,082,482 * .00000185)

Notes: This was my second week combining the coins using Coin Control. Last week I saw substandard results percentage-wise in this experiment, and this week was slightly worse. At 1200% this week I should have ended with 1,122,761, so I was about 40,000 OPC below where I should have been. The actual rate I earned was 1005%.

I think it is safe to say Coin Control is not the answer. If we look at the percentages we earned over the 6 weeks of this experiment overall we have:

  1. 1010% (parsed into 10k chunks)
  2. 990%
  3. 1155%
  4. 1070%
  5. 1020% (combined)
  6. 1005% (combined)

It is hard to tell with so little data, but it seems like the longer the coins stake, the closer to 1200% the returns were. Weeks 3 & 4, where I had not touched anything in weeks, are my best returns. When I started over, using Coin Control, the results seemed to revert back to the percentages I was seeing at the beginning of the experiment.

The results from this week continue to back up the conclusion that OPC is not paying 1200%. Fortunately, I have been contacted by @VaporLips from the OPC Discord channel, and he is walking me through some math. I hope to finally have an explanation for you next week.

 

Week 7 Results (March 1st to March 7th) – OPC @ 1200%

  • Started with – 1,082,482
  • Earned Staking through 7 complete days – 246,770
  • Average Daily Earned – 35,252
  • Average Number of Stakes / Day – 3.43
  • Average Stake Reward – 10,282
  • Total OPC After 49 Days – 1,329,252
  • Total OPC Staked after 49 Days – 994,696  (1,329,252 – 334,556)
  • Percent Earned this week – 22.79% (246,770 / 1,082,482)
  • Percent Earned Since Start – 297.32% (994,696 / 334,556)
  • Approximate BTC Price at end of period, 155 sats.
  • Approx. BTC Weekly Staking value –  .38 BTC (246,770 * .00000155)
  • Approx. BTC Total value –  2.06 BTC (1,329,252 * .00000155)

Notes: I did not combine the coins this week. Not surprisingly, our percentage is up to nearly 1090%. I am still 28,322 OPC short this week from if I had earned 1200%. I predicted the percentage increase last week when I showed how the wallet, when untouched, seemed to stake better.

OPC is less than two weeks away from moving up to 1500%. In my logical, yet feeble, mind, I would think that people would start buying in to take advantage of this now, before it happens. The price of OPC has showed some life this week, but in the last two days BTC and the entire market are down, and OPC has followed.

I think we missed the optimal time to sell, which was last month when the price was 4x what it is now. We will see if it gets anywhere near that in the next 10 days before the percentage increase. I doubt it. The increase from 1200% to 1500% is not large enough to cause people to buy just for a few weeks in my opinion. The answer to when the best time to sell is should be known soon. It should be easy to look at the BTC value of the OPC at the end of each week in the experiment to tell. Weeks 2 & 3 of the experiment we were way up, so we may find it makes sense to sell early.

End of experiment… This is when I learned how to accurately calculate the OPC percentage, which I detailed up top.